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FORMFACTOR INC (FORM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue of $0.203B, non-GAAP gross margin of 41.0%, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 all exceeded the midpoint of guidance and improved sequentially; GAAP gross margin rose 250 bps QoQ to 39.8% .
  • Results beat Street consensus: revenue beat by ~$2.7M* and EPS beat by ~$0.08*, while EBITDA was below consensus*; management guided Q4 to further sequential improvement in revenue ($210M ±$5M), non-GAAP GM (42% ±150 bps), and non-GAAP EPS ($0.35 ±$0.04) .
  • DRAM probe cards set a record, driven by HBM; HBM4 crossover underway, with Q3 HBM revenue at “around $40M,” and non-HBM DRAM expected to drive Q4 growth .
  • Profitability improvement program is driving margin gains (labor reductions, overtime changes, manufacturing cost actions); tariffs still weigh ~150–200 bps on GM, but mitigation efforts continue .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • DRAM probe cards delivered expected double-digit sequential growth to a new record, primarily from HBM; “we expect to post another record” in Q4 with non-HBM applications (DDR5, LPDDR4) .
    • Systems segment revenue increased as expected, with momentum towards initial volume production of co-packaged optics; multiple Triton systems were installed for silicon photonics test .
    • Margin improvement actions delivered a 250 bps QoQ increase in GAAP GM and 250 bps QoQ increase in non-GAAP GM; management reiterated commitment to reaching a 47% non-GAAP GM target model: “we’re focused…to the 47%…gross margins” .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Foundry and Logic probecard demand was weaker sequentially; CPU probecard demand remained muted as customers leveraged legacy node fleets rather than new leading-edge ramps .
    • EBITDA underperformed Street consensus* despite revenue and EPS beats, reflecting mix and continued cost headwinds including tariffs (~150–200 bps GM impact) .
    • A large CPU customer fell below the 10% revenue threshold in Q3, highlighting near-term concentration risk and the importance of diversifying/qualifying at other CPU/GPU customers .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$207.9 $195.8 $202.7
GAAP Gross Margin (%)40.7% 37.3% 39.8%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin (%)42.2% 38.5% 41.0%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.24 $0.12 $0.20
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.35 $0.27 $0.33
GAAP Operating Income ($USD Millions)$17.9 $12.3 $18.0
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)$26.7 $18.9 $27.0
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$20.0 $(47.1) $19.7

Segment and KPIs

  • Segment Margin (Non-GAAP): Probecard 40.8%; Systems 42.0% .
  • HBM Revenue: “in round numbers, $40M” in Q3 .
  • Cash and Equivalents: $97.678M; Marketable Securities: $168.351M .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)Q4 2025N/A$210 ± $5 Raised vs Q3 baseline
Non-GAAP Gross Margin (%)Q4 2025N/A42.0% ± 1.5% Raised vs Q3 baseline
Non-GAAP EPS ($)Q4 2025N/A$0.35 ± $0.04 Raised vs Q3 baseline
GAAP Gross Margin (%)Q4 2025N/A40.0% ± 1.5% N/A
Non-GAAP OpEx ($USD Millions)Q4 2025Q2 actual Non-GAAP OpEx $52.5 $58 ± $2 Increased vs Q2
Effective Tax Rate (%)Q4 2025Q3 Non-GAAP ETR 21.2% 17%–21% Lower

Q3 2025 Guidance vs Actuals (context)

  • Q3 guidance midpoints: Revenue $200M, Non-GAAP GM 40%, Non-GAAP EPS $0.25 .
  • Q3 actuals: Revenue $202.7M, Non-GAAP GM 41.0%, Non-GAAP EPS $0.33—beat across all three .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Gross Margin ImprovementQ2: non-GAAP GM shortfall due to mix and HBM ramp-up costs . Q1: sequential GM decline and Systems demand reduction .250 bps QoQ GM improvement; immediate actions (headcount reduction, overtime management, precious metal recovery); commitment to 47% model .Improving; structural and tactical actions underway.
HBM / DRAMQ2: shipping in volume to all three major HBM manufacturers; ramp costs . Q1: DRAM reduced due to China export controls .HBM4 crossover; Q3 HBM ~$40M; Q4 HBM similar to Q3; non-HBM DRAM to drive Q4 sequential record .Strong and diversifying; stable HBM near-term, non-HBM growth Q4.
Foundry & Logic / CPUQ1: Foundry & Logic up low single digits; export controls constrained advanced node designs to China . Q2: anticipated strength in Foundry & Logic .Sequentially weaker; CPU demand subdued; qualifications ongoing at major fabless CPU and merchant GPU (Apollo MEMS), pilot stage for GPU .Near-term soft; pipeline building for 2026 ramps.
Systems / CPO / TritonQ1: Systems demand reduction noted .Sequential Systems revenue increase; multiple Triton installs; pilot progressing towards initial volume for CPO .Building momentum into 2026.
Tariffs / Export ControlsQ1: Export controls limited DRAM shipments to China .Tariffs impact GM by ~150–200 bps; mitigation efforts ongoing .Persistent headwind with mitigation.
Capacity Expansion (Farmers Branch)Q2: Facility acquisition closed to add flexibility in lower-cost region .Capex $140–$170M in 2026; initial capacity late-2026, majority in 2027 .Execution progressing; long-term margin tailwind.

Management Commentary

  • CEO on margin focus: “we’re focused on…improving our profitability to get back on a path to the 47% non-GAAP gross margins of our target model” .
  • CFO on actions: “we just completed a reduction in headcount…implemented changes in how we manage overtime…expanded…precious metal recovery…targeted decreases in manufacturing spending” .
  • Tariff impacts: “we continue to see a 150 to 200 basis point impact in gross margins from tariffs…taking actions to mitigate” .
  • HBM specifics: “HBM…in round numbers, $40M in the quarter…HBM4 takes over as the majority…expect continued growth” .
  • Systems/CPO: “installed multiple units of our next-generation Triton…bringing…optical and electrical probe and test capability…transition…from the lab to the fab” .

Q&A Highlights

  • HBM4 crossover and test intensity tailwinds (higher stacks, faster I/O) should increase probecard intensity; FormFactor’s SmartMatrix architecture validated at 10+ Gbps .
  • CPU weakness: a large CPU customer dropped below 10% revenue in Q3; near-term PC sector soft, but qualification efforts underway across major CPU/GPU customers for 2026 .
  • Margin drivers: mix, volume, and cost actions all contributed; volume was the minority; restructuring benefits ~$1M in Q4 and ~$1.5M thereafter .
  • CPO milestone path: pilot production ongoing; Triton systems installed; external product launches expected early–mid next year as potential catalysts .
  • Networking silicon opportunity: growing importance in data centers; FormFactor positioned to leverage advanced MEMS capabilities as requirements converge with GPU-level specs .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 Actuals vs Street Consensus

MetricConsensusActualBeat/Miss
Revenue ($USD Millions)199.97*202.68 Beat by ~$2.71M*
Primary EPS (Non-GAAP, $)0.249*0.33 Beat by ~$0.081*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)34.45*27.78*Miss by ~$6.67M*

Q4 2025 Context

MetricStreet ConsensusCompany Guidance
Revenue ($USD Millions)210.33*$210 ± $5
Primary EPS (Non-GAAP, $)0.35*$0.35 ± $0.04

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

FY Consensus Snapshot

MetricFY 2025FY 2026
Primary EPS (Mean, $)1.18*1.551*
Revenue (Mean, $USD Millions)780.18*856.98*

Interpretation: Revenue/EPS beats in Q3 likely support modest upward estimate revisions for near-term non-GAAP profitability; EBITDA shortfall may temper magnitude of upward revisions.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Margin momentum is credible: immediate cost actions plus structural initiatives (automation, yield/cycle-time, Farmers Branch facility) are driving sequential GM gains with a path to 47% non-GAAP GM in 2026 .
  • HBM remains a core growth engine: HBM4 crossover underway; Q3 HBM ~$40M; Q4 HBM similar to Q3 while non-HBM DRAM (DDR5/LPDDR4) drives sequential growth .
  • Diversification pipeline is critical: near-term CPU softness underscores the importance of securing qualifications across major CPU/GPU customers; GPU Apollo MEMS pilot sets up H1 2026 volume opportunity .
  • Systems/CPO optionality: Triton deployments and pilot-to-volume trajectory can add incremental growth; watch for early–mid next-year product launch catalysts .
  • Tariffs remain a headwind (~150–200 bps GM), but mitigation is underway; investors should monitor risk around policy changes and export controls, especially for China-related advanced nodes .
  • Liquidity and cash generation improved: operating cash flow rebounded to $27.0M; FCF positive at $19.7M; cash and marketable securities total $266.0M, supporting capacity investment and margin initiatives .
  • Near-term trading: evidence of execution (beats, rising margins, Q4 guide higher) plus HBM narrative can be catalysts; watch commentary on Foundry/Logic and any updates on GPU/CPU qualifications to gauge 2026 earnings power .